Oil Edges Higher after EU New Sanctions on Russia

A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
TT

Oil Edges Higher after EU New Sanctions on Russia

A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo

Oil prices edged higher on Friday, heading for a small weekly loss, as investors weighed new European Union sanctions against Russia.

Brent crude futures climbed 50 cents, or 0.72%, to $70.02 a barrel as of 0912 GMT, US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 61 cents, or 0.9%, to $68.15 a barrel.

At those levels, the contracts were headed for a marginal weekly loss of 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, Reuters reported.

Investors mulled the potential impact on global oil balances of the EU's agreement on an 18th sanctions package against Russia over its war in Ukraine, which includes measures aimed at dealing further blows to Russia's oil and energy industries.

Its latest sanctions package will lower the G7's price cap for buying Russian crude oil to $47.6 per barrel, diplomats told Reuters.

"Neither the price cap for Russian oil nor adding shadow fleet tankers on a sanction list managed to disrupt Russian oil exports so far, so the market remains sceptical of the impact of the latest sanctions," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Investors are awaiting news from the US on possible further sanctions, after President Donald Trump earlier this week threatened sanctions on buyers of Russian exports unless Moscow agrees a peace deal in 50 days.

"Ultimately, it is now a matter of waiting for possible major changes in US sanctions and tariff policy," Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

Four days of drone attacks on oilfields in Iraqi Kurdistan that shut down half the region's output have supported prices, pushing both contracts up by $1 on Thursday.

The attacks "are bound to take their toll as the region’s output has been slashed from 280,000 bpd to around 130,000 barrels per day," said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.

Officials pointed to Iran-backed militias as the likely source of attacks this week on the region's oilfields, although no group has claimed responsibility.

Despite the attack, Iraq's federal government said on Thursday that Iraqi Kurdistan will resume oil exports through a pipeline to Türkiye after a two-year halt.



IMF Eyes Revised Global Forecast, but Warns Trade Tensions Still Cloud Outlook

A hazy view of the skyline in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio.
A hazy view of the skyline in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio.
TT

IMF Eyes Revised Global Forecast, but Warns Trade Tensions Still Cloud Outlook

A hazy view of the skyline in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio.
A hazy view of the skyline in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio.

The International Monetary Fund warned on Friday that risks related to trade tensions continue to cloud the global economic outlook and uncertainty remains high despite some increased trade and improved financial conditions.

IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said the fund would update its global forecast later in July given "front-loading ahead of tariff increases and some trade diversion," along with improved financial conditions and signs of continued declines in inflation.

In April the IMF slashed its growth forecasts for the United States, China and most countries, citing the impact of US tariffs on imports now at 100-year highs and warning that rising trade tensions would further slow growth.

At the time, it cut its forecast for global growth by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% for 2025, and by 0.3 percentage points to 3%. Economists expect a slight upward revision when the IMF releases an updated forecast in late July.

According to Reuters, Gopinath told finance officials from the Group of 20 major economies who met this week in South Africa that trade tensions continued to complicate the economic outlook.

"While we will update our global forecast at the end of July, downside risks continue to dominate the outlook and uncertainty remains high," she said, in a text of her remarks.

She urged countries to resolve trade tensions and implement policy changes to address underlying domestic imbalances, including scaling back fiscal outlays and putting debt on a sustainable path.

Gopinath also underscored the need for monetary policy officials to carefully calibrate their decisions to specific circumstances in their countries, and stressed the need to protect central bank independence. This was a key theme in the G20 communique released by finance officials.

Gopinath said capital flows to emerging markets and developing economies remained sluggish, but resilient, in the face of increased policy uncertainty and market volatility. For many borrowers, financing conditions remained tight.

For countries with unsustainable debt, proactive moves were essential, Gopinath said, repeating the IMF's call for timely and efficient debt restructuring mechanisms.

More work was needed on that issue, including allowing middle-income countries to access the G20's Common Framework for Debt Restructuring, she said.